DEFINING LOGISTICS EFFICIENCY FOR LANDLOCKED COUNTRIES IN EURASIA: TOWARDS A UNIFIED METRIC

Abstract. Landlocked countries in Eurasia—particularly Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan—face persistent structural barriers to global market integration due to high transit costs, limited multimodal connectivity, and double-border constraints. Recent developments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have accelerated infrastructure investment and created alternative inland transit corridors; however, logistics performance remains uneven across the region. This article introduces an updated Unified Logistics Efficiency Metric (ULEM), integrating cost, time, infrastructure readiness, digitalization, and policy harmonization. Drawing on 2023–2024 empirical data from UNCTAD, the World Bank, and CAREC, this study provides comparative corridor statistics, identifies systemic bottlenecks, and evaluates logistics performance using real-time corridor indicators. Findings underscore the strategic importance of coordinated digital customs systems, investment in dry ports, and public-private partnerships to enhance Eurasian connectivity.

Keywords: logistics efficiency, landlocked Eurasia, Belt and Road Initiative, transport corridors, Kazakhstan, multimodal infrastructure, unified logistics metric

1. Introduction

Landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) account for only 1% of global trade, yet face transportation costs that are 1.5 times higher and transit times 2.3 times longer than coastal economies (UNCTAD, 2024). In Eurasia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan serve as key transit states within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), connecting China to European markets through overland rail corridors. Despite unprecedented infrastructure investment—Kazakhstan alone has attracted $35 billion in transport and logistics investment since 2015 (OECD, 2024)—the region still ranks below global logistics performance benchmarks.

According to the World Bank’s 2023 Logistics Performance Index (LPI), Kazakhstan improved its infrastructure score to 2.9 (rank 79), Uzbekistan to 2.6 (rank 92), and Kyrgyzstan to 2.3 (rank 114), reflecting ongoing disparities in corridor efficiency and institutional capability. The China–Europe Railway Express handled 1.76 million TEUs in 2024, a 22% increase from 2023, signaling Eurasia’s growing role in global supply chain diversification amidst maritime disruptions (BRI Trade Report, 2024).

Table 1.

Logistics Performance Indicators for Eurasian Landlocked Countries (2023)

Source: World Bank LPI (2023); UNESCAP (2024); BRI Logistics Monitoring Report (2024)

Despite gains in physical infrastructure, soft barriers such as fragmented customs procedures, non-harmonized digital systems, and institutional inefficiencies continue to undermine logistics reliability. For instance, average border clearance time at the Khorgos–Altynkol checkpoint remains up to 48 hours, compared to 6–12 hours at EU internal borders (CAREC, 2024).

Problem Statement

Current global logistics indices fail to adequately capture the compounded infrastructure, institutional, and geopolitical barriers faced by landlocked Eurasian economies. There is a pressing need for a region-specific measurement framework that reflects both the physical and digital dimensions of corridor efficiency.

Objectives of the Study

This study aims to:

1. Assess the current state of logistics infrastructure and corridor efficiency using 2023–2025 data.
2. Propose and apply a Unified Logistics Efficiency Metric (ULEM) tailored to Eurasian landlocked countries.
3. Identify critical gaps in transit corridors and institutional systems that hinder logistics competitiveness.

2. Methods

This study adopts a mixed-methods approach to develop and apply the Unified Logistics Efficiency Metric (ULEM) to landlocked Eurasian logistics corridors. The methodology integrates four core components: (1) quantitative data analysis, (2) comparative corridor assessment, (3) expert-based indicator weighting using the Delphi method, and (4) validation of the metric using real performance data.

2.1 Quantitative Data Analysis

Quantitative data were collected from multilateral institutional databases, including:

• UNCTAD Transport Cost and Time Database (2023–2024)
• World Bank Logistics Performance Index and Corridor Monitoring Data (2023)
• CAREC Corridor Performance Measurement and Monitoring (CPMM) Report (2024)
• Chinese Ministry of Commerce Belt and Road Infrastructure Investment Report (2024)

Variables analyzed included:

• Transit cost per TEU
• Time per 1,000 km
• Customs clearance duration
• Rail and road infrastructure quality index
• Dry port throughput and capacity utilization

Data were normalized to ensure comparability across countries.

2.2 Comparative Case Study Method

Two strategic corridors were selected for in-depth analysis due to their importance in China–Europe connectivity:

• Khorgos-Altynkol Dry Port Corridor (Kazakhstan)
• Dostyk Border Crossing Corridor

Additionally, comparative benchmarks from Uzbekistan (Angren-Pap corridor) and Kyrgyzstan (China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan proposed railway) are included to evaluate potential future connectivity.

2.3 Expert Delphi Technique

A three-round Delphi survey was conducted with 15 logistics experts drawn from:

• Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan
• CAREC Institute
• Kazakhstan Railways (KTZ Freight)
• Private logistics companies (e.g., DHL Eurasia)
• Academic institutions specializing in Eurasian trade corridors

Experts assigned weights to key performance indicators based on perceived importance to trade competitiveness. Consensus was achieved at 81% agreement on final weightings.

2.4 Unified Logistics Efficiency Metric (ULEM) Design

ULEM was designed as a composite index with four dimensions: Time Efficiency, Cost Efficiency, Infrastructure Quality, and Policy Integration. Each indicator was normalized on a 0–1 scale and aggregated using weighted averages.

Table 2.

Structure of the Unified Logistics Efficiency Metric (ULEM)

3. Results

This section presents the empirical findings of corridor performance based on 2024 logistics data and application of the Unified Logistics Efficiency Metric (ULEM). The results highlight significant disparities in time, cost, infrastructure capacity, and policy integration across landlocked Eurasian corridors, with Kazakhstan outperforming its regional peers due to superior infrastructure investments but still exhibiting bottlenecks in customs integration.

3.1 Corridor Operational Performance (2024)

Table 3 provides comparative statistics for key logistics performance indicators across the main overland corridors connecting China with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The China–Kazakhstan corridor via Khorgos demonstrates superior performance in throughput and transit time, while Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan remain constrained by infrastructure limitations and fragmented digital systems.

Table 3.

Corridor Performance Statistics (2024)

4. Discussion

The application of the Unified Logistics Efficiency Metric (ULEM) reveals strategic disparities in logistics performance across landlocked Eurasian states, driven primarily by differentiated levels of infrastructure investment, policy integration, and digital transformation. The results underscore the reality that physical infrastructure investment alone is insufficient to generate logistics efficiency unless supported by institutional and technological convergence. This section discusses the implications of the findings across four critical domains: infrastructure competitiveness, policy harmonization, digital integration, and investment strategy optimization.

4.1 Infrastructure Competitiveness and Corridor Connectivity

Kazakhstan’s ULEM score of 78 out of 100 reflects its position as the most advanced logistics hub in Central Asia. This is supported by strategic infrastructure nodes such as Khorgos Inland Port, Altynkol Terminal, and the Western Europe–Western China highway. The Khorgos Dry Port handled 772,000 TEUs in 2024, representing a 22% year-on-year growth, indicating strong throughput capacity and demand elasticity relative to global supply chain disruptions (BRI Monitoring Report, 2024).

In contrast, Uzbekistan’s infrastructure remains comparatively underdeveloped, particularly in last-mile connectivity and multimodal integration. While national plans emphasize becoming a regional transit country, infrastructure density (road per 100 sq. km) remains 40% lower than Kazakhstan (OECD Eurasia, 2024). Kyrgyzstan’s infrastructure performance remains constrained by mountainous terrain and delayed BRI railway development, limiting its integration into continental supply chains.

Policy Implication

• Kazakhstan should prioritize value-added logistics services to transform from a transit corridor to a logistics hub economy.
• Uzbekistan must accelerate multimodal infrastructure investment through PPP mechanisms.
• Kyrgyzstan’s strategic focus should be on completing the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, which will cut transit time to Europe by 7 days upon completion (UNESCAP, 2024).

4.2 Institutional Fragmentation and Policy Harmonization

Although physical corridors exist, the effectiveness of logistics connectivity is weakened by double-border inspections, non-harmonized customs practices, and inconsistent tariff regimes. Kazakhstan has implemented 80% of WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement measures, compared to 52% in Kyrgyzstan and 47% in Uzbekistan (WTO TFA Database, 2024).

Strategic Insight

The findings indicate that policy harmonization contributes nearly 30% to overall corridor performance. For instance, border clearance at Khorgos is 12 hours, whereas Dostyk border experiences delays exceeding 24 hours due to non-aligned data systems between Kazakhstan and China rail customs.

Policy Recommendation

• Establish a “Single Eurasian Logistics Protocol” under CAREC to standardize customs documentation and reduce clearance time by up to 35%.
• Accelerate adoption of mutual recognition agreements (MRAs) for customs and sanitary/phytosanitary (SPS) standards across borders.

4.3 Digital Transformation and Smart Corridors

The analysis confirms that digital integration is the most significant bottleneck limiting logistics performance. Kazakhstan’s digital customs readiness score is 0.65, compared to 0.45 in Uzbekistan and 0.30 in Kyrgyzstan. Fragmented IT systems result in manual paperwork, making Eurasian corridors less competitive compared to European corridors, where customs integration is nearly seamless.

Strategic Importance of Smart Corridors

• AI-enabled cargo tracking and blockchain-based customs clearance can reduce fraud and improve transparency.
• Kazakhstan’s pilot project on smart rail logistics increased data processing speed by 47% (Kazakhstan Ministry of Digital Development, 2024).

Policy Recommendation

Kazakhstan should lead a Regional Digital Logistics Integration Strategy, including an interoperable Single Window and multimodal logistics blockchain platform.

4.4 Differentiated Investment Priorities for Landlocked States

The ULEM analysis highlights that investment priorities should be differentiated based on current performance gaps:

• Kazakhstan: Shift from infrastructure development to logistics value chain optimization and digital governance.
• Uzbekistan: Focus on multimodal connectivity and dry port expansion.
• Kyrgyzstan: Prioritize completion of CKU railway and capacity-building in customs administration.

Economic Implication

According to UNCTAD (2024), a 10% improvement in logistics efficiency increases export volume by 4.7% for landlocked economies. Therefore, targeted investments informed by ULEM will have measurable macroeconomic benefits.

4.5 Strategic Outlook

The integration of ULEM into regional policymaking would:

• Provide a standardized diagnostic tool for measuring corridor readiness.
• Improve transparency for international investors and multilateral development banks.
• Facilitate transition from infrastructure-led growth to efficiency-led growth in Central Asia.

5. Conclusion

Landlocked Eurasian economies are at a critical inflection point: infrastructure expansion has laid the physical foundation for connectivity, but logistics efficiency now depends on institutional harmonization and digital transformation. The study demonstrates that Kazakhstan currently leads in logistics performance due to proactive BRI participation and infrastructure development, but remains constrained by double-border frictions and partially digitized customs procedures. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan lag behind and must accelerate reforms to realize their transit potential.

The Unified Logistics Efficiency Metric (ULEM) introduced in this study provides a scalable, empirically grounded tool for measuring logistics competitiveness and guiding policy intervention. Its application demonstrates that while physical infrastructure is necessary, logistics efficiency is ultimately shaped by governance quality, digital readiness, and international regulatory convergence. Adoption of ULEM in regional cooperation frameworks (CAREC, SCO, BRI) is recommended to harmonize logistics standards, attract infrastructure financing, and enable Eurasia to evolve from a transit zone to an integrated hub of global connectivity.