To the question about measures of increase of birth rate in Russia

Abstract. This article discusses the main reasons for the decline in the birth rate in Russia, government measures to increase the birth rate, as well as options for predicting the number of births.

Keywords: birth rate, state measures, population, forecast, demography.

Fertility is predominantly an important process that determines the reproduction of the population. One of the key problems of this century is the decline in fertility.

At present, modern society is evolving in such a way that careers, money are pushed to the forefront and home improvement, creating a family and having children, are not taken for granted, but delayed. According to statistical studies, as of January 1, 2019, the population of the Russian Federation is 146.7451 million people, which is 35.6 thousand less compared to January 1, 2018. If you adhere to this trend, then by 2030 the population of our country will be 140.5 million people.

In 2018, the number of births in Russia was 10.9 per 1000 people, while in 2017 it was 11.5 per 1000 people. Thus, in 2018 the birth rate fell by 5.2% (90.6 thousand people).

Figure 1. Dynamics of the number of births in Russia in 2010-2018, million people

There are two real factors that determine the dynamics of the final fertility indicators in Russia. The first factor is the transformation of the age-specific fertility model - the shift in fertility to older ages. The second factor is the extremely favorable dynamics of the female contingents of precisely those age groups into which the highest birth rate shifts, with a decrease in the number of women in the age group (20-24 years), which is losing its former significance. [4]

Figure 2. Histogram of age-specific birth rates from 2010-2017

According to the presented chart, the number of women who gave birth in 2017 decreased compared to previous years.

Figure 3. The main causes of low fertility in the Russian Federation

To solve the problems presented and to stimulate the birth rate in families, the state takes a number of measures:

1. Maternity capital. Maternity capital was introduced on January 1, 2007 and is valid through December 31, 2026. [1] From January 1, 2020, maternity capital is paid for the first child and subsequent children.

2. Monthly payment to families with children. The program was adopted on December 21, 2017. Monthly payment is made in the following cases:

- if the first child was born no later than January 1, 2018;

- if the family income does not exceed 2 times the regional subsistence minimum. [2]

3. The allowance for the care of a child up to 1.5 years. The program was created to financially support motherhood.

The state also seeks to improve social infrastructure in the framework of:

1. Construction of perinatal centers. The purpose of this program is to create the necessary conditions for the provision of quality medical care to mothers and children.

2.  Extra beds in kindergartens and nurseries. At present, a network of nurseries for children from two months to three years is expanding in Russia. By 2021, it is planned to build more than 700 new facilities. In this regard, a huge queue in the nursery will be eliminated.

Under discussion:

1. Prenatal certificate. A certain amount will be paid to the woman for the very fact of conception.

2. Benefits for women who decide to give birth after 30 years.

3. Revision of the system of payment of child benefits. At the moment, benefits are received by both the wealthy and the poor. It is proposed to give benefits only to those who need money.

4. The creation of the Ministry of happiness and the future. The work of the Ministry will help every citizen of Russia to feel happy.

Implementing the measures presented above, there are 3 possible variants of forecasting fertility increase: low, medium, high.

Figure 4. Forecasts of the number of births in Russia

Based on the above facts, we can conclude that the demographic situation in our country is negative.

The population is declining every year and in the near future without measures to increase the birth rate, the demographic situation will only worsen. The state should pay special attention to this problem, without any incentives the situation will not change. To change the reproductive attitude, it is necessary to promote family values, strengthen the institution of the family, and develop the educational system.