Development of the Russian-German energy dialogue

Abstract. This scientific article is devoted to the interaction of the Russian Federation and Germany in the energy sector. The author considers the differences and sanctions related to the construction of the Nord stream 2 project, as well as the assumptions about how strong and long-term energy cooperation between the two countries can become in view of the current international situation.

Keywords: Russia, Germany, Nord stream, energy sector, USA.

The formation of a new energy alliance between Germany and the Russian Federation today can be explained by various factors. In the context of the economic crisis as a result of the collapse of oil prices and the pandemic, the issue of energy supply is becoming more urgent. The Governments of both States are confident that only through unity and joint efforts can we overcome the existing problems.

Young Germans and Russians were offered to create a joint better future aimed at maintaining mutually beneficial relations. Moreover, the leadership of both the German and Russian sides hopes for a breakthrough in bilateral relations. It should be emphasized that the rapprochement of the two states takes place in various areas: for example, in the field of economy, innovation, and digital technologies. However, we will focus on the energy sector, as the export of Russian energy resources is one of the most ambitious issues of bilateral cooperation.

As we know, the German government plans to switch the entire country to renewable energy sources in the future, and Germany is rapidly moving in this direction. The German environmental organization Germanwatch is generally positive about Germany's energy performance in 2019. In this regard, Russia is ready to offer Germany new developments in the energy sector. In the autumn of 2019, the Russian side reported that methane-hydrogen technologies that reduce harmful emissions of hydrocarbon fuels have already been developed in our country and may be in demand in Germany. That is, in the context of Germany's transition to environmentally friendly energy sources, Russia will be one of the priority suppliers.

Considering the energy dialogue of the Russian Federation and Germany, special attention should be paid to the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, which has become the subject of controversy among the EU and the United States.

As for the United States, everything is very clear: they are determined to supply their liquefied gas to Germany, and this may explain their position against the construction of the Nord Stream. Moreover, the US leadership is fully aware that the rapprochement of Russia and Germany will lead to the subsequent rapprochement of Russia with other EU countries, which the American side cannot allow. Close cooperation between Russia and the EU may lead to a reduction in the role of the United States and China in world politics.

It is easy to imagine what efforts the United States is trying to prevent a rapprochement. The Russian economy is closely linked to the European market through the export of various products. The introduction of sanctions against Russia is aimed at weakening its economy. However, the United States still did not take into account one point. The introduction of sanctions against Russia has also affected EU countries, including Germany, as well as American investors. There are a large number of German entrepreneurs in Russia who are confidently building a business here. The sanctions directly affected them as well. Angela Merkel made a statement to D. Trump about the easing of sanctions in favor of German businessmen, but this proposal did not attract the approval of the American president.

However, the European Union is not going to lift sanctions against Russia until the conditions of the Minsk agreements are met. Calls for their abolition are periodically heard in Western Europe, including in Germany. Moreover, back in 2018, Vladimir Putin called the sanctions a "counterproductive measure", also noting that "it's not just the position of the US president — it's the position of the so-called establishment", and in response to this, Moscow introduced import substitution.

Russia is undoubtedly the largest gas supplier to Germany. Our country is in the first place with proven gas reserves of about 30% of the world's and is one of the most reliable suppliers. Russia is building pipelines of varying complexity to ensure stable and uninterrupted gas exports. Given the dynamics of the development of the Russian energy industry, it is quite possible to say that this alliance is very important for both Russia and Germany. However, both sides will be able to reach a full understanding only when they come to a common agreement on the Minsk agreements.

Summarizing the above, we can draw the following conclusions: not only the Russian side is interested in cooperation, but also Germany is ready to compromise. However, the question arises, if the energy alliance with Russia is so important to Germany, will the sanctions be lifted soon? The actions of the German government at this stage are difficult to assess unambiguously. However, it is quite possible to say that Germany understands the importance of Nord Stream 2 and further energy dialogue with Russia, primarily due to the price availability of Russian gas.

It will take a long time to settle all the differences, but this is a huge step forward on the way to creating a truly warm union. It is now clear that the world's largest economies are facing a recession. The lifting of economic sanctions could bring the formation of the Russian-German energy alliance closer, but then one of the parties will have to compromise in the political sphere, so at this stage, the lifting of sanctions, perhaps, is logical to consider as the least likely scenario. However, even a cursory analysis shows that such an alliance is beneficial to both sides.