DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN 2020–2025: A NEW TURNING POINT?

Abstract. The study of new trends in Kazakhstan’s demographic development is of current scientific relevance, as it represents a key factor influencing the country’s socio-economic growth and public policy. Over the past five years, Kazakhstan has demonstrated an intensive path of demographic development. The transformation of the country’s demographic dynamics can be traced back to the socio-economic crises of the late twentieth century, which led to population decline, intensified migration flows, decreased birth rates, and increased mortality—factors that negatively affected the demographic structure. This period coincided with a slowdown in natural population growth and an acceleration of urbanization processes.

In comparison, the years 2021–2025 have revealed new tendencies in Kazakhstan’s demographic profile. Notably, population growth has resumed, birth rates have stabilized to some extent, life expectancy has increased, and migration processes have undergone significant changes. Moreover, transformations in the ethno-demographic composition, the growing proportion of young people, and the advancement of urbanization to a new level have all influenced the country’s socio-economic development.

It is concluded that the demographic changes between 2020 and 2025 mark a new turning point in Kazakhstan’s national development. These emerging trends have been identified through the application of comparative-historical analysis, statistical methods, and a systemic approach.

Keywords: Kazakhstan, demographic changes, urbanization, migration.

Demographic trends are the mirror of social development. The nature of demographic changes over the past five years has evolved not quantitatively, but qualitatively. Firstly, the concentration of the population in cities has transformed the structure of the labor force. Secondly, the slowdown in birth rates and the decline in the proportion of youth represent a new demographic reality. Thirdly, migration flows have influenced the ethnic and regional balance of the population. The combination of these factors provides grounds to characterize the period of 2020–2025 as a new turning point in Kazakhstan’s demographic development.

The growth of Kazakhstan’s population, structural transformations, and migration movements reflect the level of the country’s social, economic, and cultural development. The period of 2020–2025 was marked by specific challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, and regional urbanization. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider this timeframe as a new stage in demographic transition. The study of demographic development within this chronological framework holds both scientific and practical importance. The demographic development of every nation is one of the key directions that directly affects its national potential. Hence, in recent years, increasing attention has been paid to national demography in Kazakhstan. Since gaining independence, demography has emerged as a distinct research field, while issues such as ethnodemographic transformation, migration, urbanization, fertility, and mortality have attracted growing scholarly interest. For instance, domestic researchers analyzing long-term trends in fertility and mortality have noted the uneven demographic development across different regions of the country, which ultimately influences the overall demographic situation [3].

The main purpose of this article is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of demographic changes in Kazakhstan over the past five years, to identify new trends, and to predict some of their possible causes. To achieve this, the dynamics of birth and death rates were examined, urbanization processes were analyzed, and internal and external migration directions were assessed to reveal transformations in ethnodemographic composition. Thus, identifying the new phase of demographic development in Kazakhstan and analyzing its features based on statistical data constitute the scientific novelty of this research. The findings not only contribute to demographic scholarship but also provide insights that can support the improvement of state socio-economic policies.

Overall, the results of the study show that demographic development in Kazakhstan during the first quarter of the 21st century has evolved along several new trajectories. We believe that improving the demographic level of the country requires particular attention to education. Higher education levels tend to lower fertility rates while increasing life expectancy and economic activity, thereby shaping both the pace and direction of demographic change. The ongoing demographic phase in Kazakhstan, characterized by increasing educational attainment among both men and women, may create new socio-economic opportunities in the next three decades. However, this requires appropriate economic conditions, effective state policies, and employment opportunities for young people [2].

An analysis of birth and death rates between 2021 and 2025 indicates that population growth has stabilized over the past five years, influenced by social support programs and economic stabilization. Life expectancy has gradually increased, reaching an average of 73 years by the mid-2020s.

The key feature of demographic changes in 2020–2025 lies in their qualitative rather than quantitative nature. While in the 2010s demographic growth was primarily driven by high fertility, in recent years it has become more dependent on migration and urbanization factors. The pandemic directly affected public health and altered social behavior: marriage, childbirth, and relocation rates slowed down. Economic difficulties and rising housing prices also led many young families to postpone childbearing decisions. At the same time, increased urbanization improved access to education and healthcare, though it reduced the social potential of rural areas.

Another important direction of new demographic trends in Kazakhstan is urbanization. This process has directly reshaped the labor market, housing policy, and the quality of social infrastructure. In urban areas, the proportion of youth has increased, while in rural areas, population aging has become more evident. Urbanization can be defined as a process of change in the size, density, and diversity of cities [5].

The pace of urbanization has radically altered Kazakhstan’s settlement structure: population growth in large cities and intensified rural-to-urban migration have reshaped demographic geography. Shifts in external migration and the return of ethnic Kazakhs have affected the ethnodemographic composition of the country. Consequently, the share of ethnic Kazakhs has significantly increased, leading to a transformation of interethnic relations. The concentration of youth in urban centers puts pressure on the labor market and social infrastructure, while population aging requires a reconsideration of long-term demographic policy priorities.

Thus, the main new trends in Kazakhstan’s demographic development are population growth, accelerated urbanization, changes in ethnodemographic structure, and an increase in life expectancy. These processes directly influence the country’s socio-economic strategy and play an important role in ensuring national stability and security.

Over the past five years, the ratio between urban and rural populations in Kazakhstan has changed significantly. In 2000, urban residents made up about 56% of the total population, whereas by 2023 this figure exceeded 60%. The rate of migration from rural to urban areas has intensified, particularly among young people—reflecting a global trend. Urbanization indicators in recent years demonstrate that rural regions are experiencing stagnation. According to data from July 1, 2025, Kazakhstan’s total population reached 20,387,811 people, of which 12,899,438 were urban residents and 7,488,373 lived in rural areas [4]. Compared to 2021, these figures indicate a significant overall population increase (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Comparative analysis of Kazakhstan’s population growth in 2021 and 2025. Compiled by the author based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics

This figure allows for a comparison of the quantitative dynamics of urban and rural populations. The results of the comparative analysis show that over the past four years, the total population of Kazakhstan has increased by approximately 6.3%. This indicates positive dynamics in both natural population growth and migration processes. The steady growth of the population demonstrates that the birth rate in the country remains relatively high. A similar development trend is observed in the dynamics of the urban population. As a result, the number of urban residents has increased by 10%, which proves that the process of urbanization is intensifying. It can be concluded that the concentration of economic, educational, and infrastructural opportunities has contributed to migration toward cities.

At the same time, a slow increase is observed in the rural population—only 0.6%. Despite the relatively high birth rates in rural areas, this indicates that the process of youth migration to cities remains dominant.

According to national census data, the process of urbanization in Kazakhstan has been particularly intensive over the past twelve years: the share of the urban population was 56.4% in 1999, 56.1% in 2009, and reached 61.2% in 2021. Accordingly, the share of the rural population has declined, amounting to 38.8% two years ago. The Concept for the Development of Rural Areas of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2023–2027, approved by the Government Resolution of March 28, 2023, predicts that out of 6,295 rural settlements, only about 5,900 will remain in the near future. This suggests that urbanization will continue, and hundreds of villages that are not included in the list of promising core or partner rural settlements are likely to become depopulated [1].

The demographic changes that occurred between 2020 and 2025 opened a new stage in the social structure of Kazakhstan’s society. Shifts in urbanization, migration, and birth rate dynamics require a reassessment of the long-term population policy strategy. In the coming decade, achieving demographic stability should be based on ensuring regional balance and the effective use of youth potential.

In conclusion, the first quarter of the 21st century has demonstrated that Kazakhstan has entered a qualitatively new stage of demographic development. Following the socio-economic crises of the early years of independence, the country’s demographic processes have gradually stabilized, with clear evidence of population growth, stabilization of birth rates, and an increase in life expectancy. These indicators represent the main features of Kazakhstan’s demographic development in the first quarter of the 21st century.

Overall, between 2020 and 2025, Kazakhstan has taken a new step in its demographic evolution. The changes of these years reflect not only steady population growth but also structural and qualitative transformations:

• Although natural growth has slowed, the total population has increased due to migration;
• The process of urbanization has reshaped the spatial distribution of the population;
• Changes in ethnic composition and age structure have renewed the social landscape of society.

Demographic changes during this period can be described as a new turning point, as they require a rethinking of Kazakhstan’s socio-economic development strategy.