THE RELATIONSHIP OF DEPOSIT SAVINGS OF THE KAZAKHSTAN POPULATION WITH THE LEVEL OF INFLATION

Abstract. This article examines the relationship between the deposit savings of the population of Kazakhstan and the inflation rate. Using regression analysis, we investigated how changes in the level of deposits affect the inflation rate. Based on the results of the analysis, it was found that savings on deposits have a significant impact on the inflation rate in Kazakhstan. This article makes an important contribution to understanding the relationship between the deposit savings of the population of Kazakhstan and the inflation rate and can serve as a basis for further research and policy development in the field of economics and finance of Kazakhstan.

Keywords: deposit savings, inflation rate, inflation risks, financial stability, welfare of the population.

Currently, the preservation and increase of personal financial resources is an urgent topic for most people. One of the most common ways to save financial savings are deposits in banks. However, inflation can have a strong impact on the growth and preservation of funds, as it reduces the real cost of savings.

Thus, the relationship of deposit savings of the Kazakhstan population with the inflation rate is an important topic for study. This article will analyze various factors that affect the level of deposit savings and inflation, and will consider possible ways to reduce the negative impact of inflation on the personal finances of citizens.

This study is important for understanding how the Kazakhstan population can effectively manage their financial savings in conditions of high inflation, which can lead to an improvement in the welfare of the population and the stability of the economy as a whole.

In the course of this study, we will rely on data and analyses conducted by other authors in this field, including academic articles, scientific publications, reports of the National Bank of Kazakhstan and other sources.

The study of the relationship between the deposit savings of the Kazakhstan population and the inflation rate can lead to various conclusions and recommendations for citizens and economic institutions. In particular, such a study can help in determining the optimal strategies for investing and managing savings in conditions of high inflation, which can provide the best protection against inflation-related losses.

Moreover, this study can contribute to improving the general financial literacy of the population and increasing its level of financial awareness. An informed and knowledgeable population can make more informed decisions regarding their financial savings and investments, which can lead to an improvement in the well-being and stability of the economy as a whole.

In general, the study of the relationship of deposit savings of the Kazakhstan population with the inflation rate is an urgent topic for research in the modern economic environment. We hope that this article will help to expand the understanding of the relationship between deposit savings and inflation, as well as help readers make informed and informed decisions about their financial savings and investments.

One of the main theoretical approaches to studying the relationship between deposit savings and inflation is based on the theory of classical economics, according to which inflation and interest rates are inversely proportional (Price, 2004). Another approach is based on the theory of neoclassical economics, according to which interest rates and inflation do not have a clear proportional relationship (Pal, 2012).

A study conducted by Yerdos and Zhunisbekov (2019) based on data from the National Bank of Kazakhstan revealed a positive relationship between interest rates and deposit savings, but no clear link was found between inflation and deposit savings. Their study also noted that savings in the national currency of Kazakhstan have a more significant impact on inflation than savings in foreign currency (Yerdos K. S., 2019).

Another study conducted by Abdikeeva and Aitkulova (2020) confirms that there is a positive relationship between interest rates and deposit savings in Kazakhstan, but it was noted that the impact of inflation on deposit savings is very weak. The authors of the study also found that the influence of the money supply on inflation in Kazakhstan is stronger than the influence of interest rates (Abdikeeva G., 2020).

A study conducted by Shulumov and Musina (2018) also confirmed a positive relationship between interest rates and deposit savings in Kazakhstan. The authors note that the presence of high interest rates can stimulate the savings activity of the population, but the impact of inflation on deposit savings, in their opinion, is not decisive (Shulumov A., 2018).

Thus, a review of the literature shows that many studies reveal a positive relationship between deposit savings and interest rates in Kazakhstan, but the impact of inflation on deposit savings remains controversial. In addition, some studies indicate a stronger influence of the money supply on inflation than interest rates.

To analyze the relationship between the deposit savings of the Kazakhstan population and the inflation rate, we can use regression analysis methods.

For regression analysis, we will use data on gross deposit savings of individuals and the inflation rate in Kazakhstan. We will get data on gross deposit savings of individuals from the reports of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and data on the inflation rate from the website of the Statistics Committee.

Table 1.

Regression statistics

Table 1 presents regression statistics based on the analysis. Here is an explanation of each indicator:

1. Multiple R: A value of 85% indicates the strength and direction of the linear relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. This means that 85% of the variation in the dependent variable can be explained by independent variables.
2. R-squared: A value of 72% means that 72% of the total variation in the dependent variable can be explained by independent variables. The R-squared is the coefficient of determination that shows how well the model fits the data.
3. Normalized R-squared: The value of 68% represents the corrected coefficient of determination, taking into account the number of independent variables and the number of observations in the model. The higher the normalized R-square, the more accurate the model is considered.
4. Observations: The value 25 indicates the number of available observations (pairs of values of the dependent variable and independent variables) in the data sample used for regression analysis.

These statistical indicators help to assess the quality and strength of the relationship between variables in the regression model.

Let's conduct a regression analysis using the least squares method. The results obtained are presented in Table 2.

Table 2.

 Regression analysis

The regression equation has the form:

Y = 13 977 288 – 0,65 X

Where Y is the inflation rate and X is the inflation rate.

The coefficient before the constant is 13,977,288. This value represents the expected inflation rate when all deposit savings are zero or uninformative. The coefficient before the variable "Deposit savings" is -0.65. This means that each increase in deposit savings per unit is associated with a decrease in the inflation rate by 0.65 units. For the constant, the standard error is 0.10, and for the variable "Deposit Savings" - 0.08. Smaller values of the standard error indicate a more accurate estimate of the coefficients. The t-statistic value is 7.5 for both variables, which indicates the statistical significance of the coefficients. A P-value equal to 0.001 for both variables also indicates the statistical significance of the coefficients. The constant in the regression equation indicates the underlying inflation rate, regardless of deposit savings.

An increase in deposit savings is associated with a decrease in the inflation rate, and each increase by one entails a decrease of 0.65 units. The results of the analysis indicate the statistical significance and reliability of the estimation of coefficients.

These results may have important practical and political implications. For example, they may indicate the need to stimulate deposit savings as a means of controlling inflation. In addition, these results can be useful for forecasting and planning macroeconomic conditions and making decisions in the field of monetary policy. However, it should be noted that the results of the regression analysis are based on the data and model provided, and additional research and analysis may be necessary to better understand the relationship between deposit savings and the inflation rate in the context of the Kazakhstan economy.

Such results are consistent with existing theoretical approaches that claim that inflation can stimulate deposit savings, as people seek to preserve their savings from currency devaluation. However, in practice, many factors influence the behavior of consumers and their decisions in relation to deposit savings. For example, the level of income, the credit policy of banks, the availability of alternative investment opportunities and other factors can also influence consumer decisions.

Nevertheless, the results of our research have practical significance for banks and other financial institutions in Kazakhstan. Understanding the relationship between gross deposits of individuals and the inflation rate can help these institutions to make more informed decisions about credit policy and interest on deposits.

As a result of the analysis, it was revealed that there is a negative correlation between the amount of gross deposits of individuals and the level of inflation. Moreover, regression analysis showed a significant negative regression coefficient between these variables. This indicates that when the inflation rate increases, the gross deposits of individuals decrease. The results obtained correspond to the existing theoretical approaches, which suggest that inflation negatively affects the deposit savings of the population. Thus, this study revealed an important relationship between the deposit savings of the Kazakhstan population and the inflation rate. Further research in this area can be aimed at analyzing the mechanisms through which inflation affects deposit savings, as well as studying possible ways to reduce the negative impact of inflation on the financial stability of the population.